Bitcoin CRASH! Accumulate Now?

[00:00:00] Speaker A: Nobody knows exactly when the bottom for Bitcoin will be in. Nobody can claim to be able to time the bottom with accuracy. All you can do is take a look at key levels underneath. You understand the risks associated with investing and only invest as much as you are willing to. That will allow you to sleep at night. Right. Ultimately you don't want to invest in such a way that you get shaken out during these periods either emotionally or technically. [00:00:21] Speaker B: Right. [00:00:22] Speaker A: Like leveraging your bitcoin through a bitcoin backed loan or something like that in order to buy more or any other sort of lending that introduces liquidation risk. That can be very difficult to weather during times like this. So ultimately, during these times of volatility, understand that this asset is monetizing to a multi trillion dollar one. Right now we're probably about to break underneath that that one trillion dollar mark. As far as Bitcoin's market cap is concerned, if we are to hit those lower levels, zoom out, use these zones as a buying opportunity. Use periods like this to educate yourself and understand the asset you're holding. And then your conviction will allow you to hold through these volatile periods. [00:00:54] Speaker B: Hello, welcome to the Money Adjustment. I'm your host, Dr. Mark Kramer. I am a chiropractor who loves investing and trading are in what's moving markets and your money. [00:01:06] Speaker A: Bitcoin is now proof of money. I like Michael Saylor's quote. He said if you can remember 12 words, you become the money. [00:01:24] Speaker B: Can we leave, should we leave our audience with that? [00:01:26] Speaker A: Yeah. [00:01:27] Speaker B: Become the money. Become the money. Let's get started. [00:01:31] Speaker A: You know is that recording podcasts like this when the price is plummeting is always fun because you have to make a bunch of adjustments to the title. Like I literally just uploaded a podcast with Caleb Franzen 20 minutes ago and $67,000 was in the title. Like why is bitcoin crashing to 67k? It's at $66,000 right now. So it's. This is going to be fun for you to have to, to, to edit this thing up. [00:01:53] Speaker B: I'm super pumped to have you on a day like today. You and I haven't spoke before. I'm just going to give you a quick rundown of my audience so you see who I'm addressing. I don't have a lot of followers. I'm not an influencer. I'm, I'm a fanboy on Spaces. I'm always in listening to Bitcoin today. Of which you host occasionally and do a great job by the way. Which is why I was Excited to have you on. [00:02:18] Speaker A: Thank you. [00:02:20] Speaker B: And so a lot of people that watch this or people I try to reach out are, I guess like two people. One are the, are the people like me that are listening to spaces and want a more casual conversation, more like a one on one with individuals versus like when you're doing the spaces. It's live, thousands of people are listening, egos are high and it has a certain kind of energy to it, which is totally cool. That's why I, you know, pay attention. But these are more like, I'm sending these to my buddies because they're not on X, they're not on spaces, they're not on LinkedIn, they don't care about any of the social media stuff, but they invest money and they are interested in financial things and, and I someone they trust because I'm not in the financial space. So that's my advantage. Like I don't do finance. So I have doctors who are my friends who converse with me and just say, I don't trust financial people. But I want to talk to you about it because I trust you. So that's a quick rundown for me. I do talk a little bit more than I should for a host and I'm going to give you the stage because definitely want to talk to you. [00:03:28] Speaker A: I have the same problem. Don't worry about it. I have the same problem. No, I love it. [00:03:31] Speaker B: I, you know what? Before I even had, before I, before we even started this, I was thinking, oh my God, when I do like the clips for Joe, I'm so pumped because you have like a radio announcer's voice and I just know we're gonna have so many good clips once I shut up and actually let you do the talking. So for my guest, let me introduce you today I have on with me Joe Consorti. He is the founder, or at least I don't know if you're a founder or founding member. Founding member of Horizon, which offers a very unique financial product. And that's going to be the main topic that we're going to get into. But since the market is very exciting right now, actually I'm going to set you up for this joke. Normally I grok my guests and then read what Grok says about them, but because I saw you posted something within the past hour, let me pull it up because I liked it and I want to get your take. All right, so yeah, it was exactly an hour ago. So posted. We have not seen capitulation yet. Joe Consorti. [00:04:35] Speaker A: Yeah, so what I mean when I say that and thank you for having me on Mark. It's, it's really great to chat with you. What I mean when I say that is in prior cycles when we talk about capitulation link, there are multiple definitions for it. I asked Caleb on the show I did the other day and he didn't have a firm definition for it either. But essentially what we're talking about when we, when we speak about capitulation is this massive day of just non stop selling where bitcoin's priced as a multi double digit percent decline. So currently we've had several back to back days of red candles. I can go ahead and share my screen here. Actually I've got a couple of charts prepared just before the show. So that way when you send this to your friends and whoever else may be watching, they can get some context here. So this price here, this chart shows the one day percentage change in Bitcoin's price. So on any given day, for example, over here, this is March of 2025, Bitcoin is up 9.5% over. And today what this is showing you is that bitcoin is down 8 1/2% so far. So what you can notice here when we talk about capitulation, I'm talking specifically about when we're approaching the bottom of the bear market and people are just selling non stop. And it's this one day of massive, massive selling. You can see here, we have set, we have had several consecutive red days. It was not more than a week ago that Bitcoin was $88,000. We're $12,000 beneath it now, a 24 decline in just seven days. So you know, in a way Bitcoin's price is falling. It seems like there will never be a floor that gets found. But usually, typically when we're approaching bare market bottoms, there is a multi, a one day double digit decline in Bitcoin's price. What I'm specifically talking about is over here toward the end of 2022 when we bottomed out at the end of the last cycle, you can see here, Bitcoin fell a maximum of nearly 16% in just one day. We haven't even seen half of that yet. Right. So it doesn't necessarily indicate a bottom, it's more so a sentiment and price indicator or not we're approaching a bottom. So when I say we haven't seen capitulation yet, it's half ingest, half being relatively serious. One of the other things that makes me make that claim is I'll get back to this Chart in a minute. Is that basically the next zone of support for me that I'm looking to find is the 200 week moving average. This is a chart of bitcoin's weekly candles in linear scale. And this yellow line is the average of bitcoin's price over the preceding 200 days. We can use it. Typically this is shown basically a pretty good floor for bitcoin's bear markets. That doesn't mean it, it never falls underneath it. In fact, back in 2022 we did fall underneath it. But typically this is a very, very good zone of accumulation. And so what you can see here is that over time, bitcoin has bounced pretty cleanly off of this. If this was not in linear scale, it'd be able to go back even further back in 2013, 2014, this is where we bottomed out again following the 2017 bear market. And then in 2020 we bounced pretty cleanly off of it. The only exception to this general rule is that it took us about six months, six to nine months after breaking underneath the 200 week moving average to actually break back above it. Now if that does happen again, and back here you can see that bitcoin fell peak to trough about 30% underneath the 200 week moving average. And so if we hit up against this thing and it doesn't serve as support and we break even further underneath it, then a bear market floor may be found at $40,000 at today's prices, which would, which would not necessarily be unheard of. Last cycle was the first cycle that we broke beneath the prior cycle's all time high. Obviously we fell underneath $20,000 which was the high in 2017. We've now just done it again. So the high of the prior cycle was obviously about $69,000 and we're now at $66,000. So once again we've broken to get up, we've broken below the prior cycles, all time high. The next area, if we are to see any sort of accumulation of these coins being sold, I would wager that it's in this zone right here. We had a lot of consolidation last summer, a lot of choppiness. And so there's plenty of volume right here. Right. A lot of people got into bitcoin around the between 55k and 70k. And so if there's any zone for accumulation before we touch that $58,000 mark, this is where I'd wager it would be. And then also the bottom of this zone lines up really nicely with the 200 week moving average. And so, purely from a technicals perspective, the next major zone of support, we're in it right now, but bitcoin is falling like a knife through it. We're about to hit, I think we'll, we'll, we'll get into $65,000 while we're on this call. But that said thousand dollars is the next really, really clear zone of support. And on a percentage basis, I'll actually take a look at what that is on a percentage basis. Right now it's only 11 away. So 11.9% away. I think that we'll see a pretty clean bounce off of it. If we don't and if we are to see sort of a repeat of the prior cycle, then if we see a mirror image of it, if you will, Bitcoin could potentially fall as much as 30% below the 200 week moving average. Obviously that's not the lowest it could fall, but if we're just taking historical patterns as precedent, then that's what we could very well see in an absolute worst case scenario in my mind. Now, I don't think that's what will happen for bitcoin, but it is a very real probability. Now the last thing I'll say is that right now bitcoin is down about 47% from its high. Yeah. So 47% from its high. This may seem bad, this may seem awful. However, you have to remember in the last cycle, bitcoin drew down 77% from its all time high before it found a floor. Right. So if that were to happen today, if we were to say, okay, bitcoin's going to fall 77% before it finds its floor, the mountain, imply a bear market floor of $28,000. Right. So because the buyer makeup of bitcoin is a little bit different now, the folks that are holding it purchased at much higher cost basis and chances are they're going to want to defend those levels. They're passively allocating every two weeks you have institutions who are bidding very heavily. Now, I doubt that we go all the way down to $28,000. Right. If I'm to be a betting man, I would say 50% probability that we form a bottom around that $60,000 level. If we do break below 50k and trend toward that $40,000 mark, which would be the same percentage decline from the other cycle. The last cycle we broke the 200 week moving average, then I would say, you know, that's, that's probably a 50% probability as well. But that, that sort of 45 to $60,000 zone is where I believe we'll find the bottom for the cycle. But either way, these are the times in bitcoin where the buying opportunities just really don't get better than this. Right. There will be a better zone to buy in. So I wouldn't say this is necessarily back up the truck levels because I do think we are going to trend lower in the next couple of weeks and challenge that 200 week moving average. But it remains to be seen. [00:11:24] Speaker B: Two things. One, have you ever done radio? [00:11:28] Speaker A: No, I've not. [00:11:29] Speaker B: Your voice is fantastic. Second, my introduction to Bitcoin was in 2000. I mean I've been casually watching it since its inception, since the 2008 financial crisis. But more recently in terms of putting skin in the game, wasn't until 2020. And that is when I first became aware of this cyclical the four year cycle theory. I'm just going to say it because I hope Fred, Fred doesn't watch my podcast. So I don't think I'm going to get any backlash from him. But I tend to subscribe to that psychology. So everything that you just described very well and very densely packed in a very short amount of time, which is fantastic. Another reason I really kind of appreciate your voice that aligns with what I'm thinking. But I'm not hearing from very intelligent people in the space. So anytime you start talking in the cyclical nature, even though you backed it up very well with numbers and very strongly you hear, hear a lot of backlash from people talking about it as nonsense, like gobbledygook. So what are your, what are your thoughts on that? [00:12:44] Speaker A: Yeah, so I mean the four year cycle theory in a nutshell is that 12 to 18 months after the having bitcoin tends to top. And so this is proven true. I, I was one of the people who thought that this sort of four year cycle, obviously Bitcoin's havings occur roughly every four years, every 210,000 blocks, which is roughly every four years assuming 10 minute block times. Now you can see here that bitcoin's Bitcoin's prior having was around early 2020. In, in spring ish of 2020, we're talking May or April if I believe. And then bitcoin managed to top roughly 18 months later. So 16 months later Bitcoin found a top and then it started trending lower from there. If we take a look at the next having, which occurred in roughly April 2024 if I'm not mistaken, lo and behold, Bitcoin manager Or Even earlier in 2024, Bitcoin managed to top in October of the following year. And so ultimately like the, the four year cycle, this sort of belief that bitcoin tops in a post halving year or roughly a year to a year and a half after the halving, that ultimately even if it's not necessarily true from a supply perspective, like it's not a, a law that you can follow to a T at some stage there are these sort of reflexive, reflexive feedback loops in markets. And so if enough people believe in the four year cycle enough to trade it in size, then it becomes something that's true. Then all of a sudden $126,000 becomes the zone at which you sell. Because there's a certain number of months after the having what I will say, and this is sort of speaking with Caleb Franzen on the show that I had yesterday with him. This isn't a bitcoin isolated sell off. In fact, Bitcoin is extremely tightly correlated to software right now. So if you look at IVG, you look at other software related ETFs, Arkw, which is the next generation Internet ETF from Ark Invest, both of them topped on basically the exact same day, all three of those assets topped. And so Bitcoin isn't selling off in a vacuum. It's not necessarily selling off as a result of this idea of a four year cycle which has to do with Bitcoin's mining dynamics. It's selling off as a result of a broader decline in risk appetite. Bitcoin obviously trades very high beta to risk your assets. So it trades in a bucket with tech, it trades with software and things like that. And so ultimately what you're seeing is that because Bitcoin isn't selling off in a vacuum, we can't really ascribe the reason it's selling off to the four year cycle. There we go, we just hit $65,000. We can all celebrate or the 65 handle. So I don't necessarily ascribe to this notion of four year cycles. I think Bitcoin much more closely follows the business cycle. But more importantly than that, risk appetite, generally speaking around the US economy and if you take a look at other assets, we may not know exactly why risk appetite is waning. Obviously we have Federal Reserve rate cuts, those are pretty slow, so those aren't necessarily going to be a catalyst for huge risk taking behavior. But either way it drives credit spreads narrower, it makes borrowing easier, it pushes people out on the risk curve into higher risk US EQUITIES in corporate bonds and junk debt and things like that. So you would expect that at the margin that would be supportive for bitcoin software, other high beta stuff, but it's not right? That's not what we've seen. So yeah, I don't necessarily know exactly why bitcoin's selling off. We just know that it's not a bitcoin isolated event and it has to do more so with risk appetite. And so knowing that we can take a look at these key levels to understand where bitcoin may potentially form a bottom, rather than trying to ascribe this to any high minded cycle theory that's entirely specific to bitcoin. Right. I think at this stage with bitcoin being one of the largest assets in the world, this probably dropped to number 15 or 16 at this point. At one point it was number five. But being one of the largest assets in the world, it doesn't trade in a vacuum. It trades in a portfolio amongst a litany of other names. And so it's on every single investor or people who are just watch markets generally to figure out what bitcoin is correlated to and why the trade is happening and then recognize that like you can't counter trade the market. Ultimately there are people who have much more money than you who are dictating these things. So trying to figure out where the flows are headed and where bitcoin will move is the most important thing that anybody can do. The final thing that I'll say here, the, the other chart that I've got for you is this is the 400 day moving average, the 400 day simple moving average in yellow and the 400 day exponential moving average in green. This again comes from Caleb Franzen and what he showed when he showed me this chart is that historically this has been a very great indicator for the start of bitcoin bear markets. Once you break down below what he calls the 200 day or 400 day moving average cloud, which is the confluence between both the exponential 400 day moving average and the simple 400 day moving average, then that historically has been a very good indicator for the start of a bitcoin bear market. And that's a close underneath it. You could, you could see very clearly here that once bitcoin broke underneath this range, it wasn't able to move higher than it. It closed for one day back above the 400 day exponential moving average. And then it broke right back down underneath it. And so that's a loss of support in the market. That's a Loss of momentum in the market. Now, while Bitcoin is clearly very oversold here, we're now at 8 and a half percent down on the day I can actually refresh this chart and we'll see an updated value here, nine and a half percent on the day we're closing in on that double digit territory. That may indicate we're in store for potentially a little bit of a bear market reversal. But I wouldn't necessarily say that this move is over until we see that 50k threshold and then after that we see the 50k threshold and then the 40k threshold after that. If I were to look at the next logical zones of support, that's what I would be looking at. [00:18:15] Speaker B: Yeah, I'm in line with your thinking very much. Those are the numbers I'm looking at. There's a certain sense of optimism within the space, especially among the bulls. And that sense of optimism I think clouds some of what's happening technically. Like I love the technical analysis aspect of it and I think you just did an amazing job of walking us through that. And I think now like Max Kaiser's voice is in my head because he's like, technical analysis is astrology for men. So I always get like a little bit of a kick out of that. And so there's like this fundamental argument happening that because of midterms there's going to be this excess liquidity that's going to start entering into the markets because when we get a new Fed chair, rates are going to come down and they're going to have to just somehow we're going to be flooding the market with money and the risk appetite is going to be coming back. That's my very layperson take on what I hear people who are more drawn to fundamentals saying versus looking at any of the technical analysis. As someone who favors technical analysis, what you're saying to me resonates more strongly because I feel like somehow the fundamentals, they find a story to make the narrative work. It's weird whether you buy into the four year cycle theory or not. Oddly enough, the timing of the FTX collapse and certain events that happen just happen to happen on that fifth year or the, you know, however you're kind of breaking out the cycles. I have always looked at it like there, there's like this four year pattern of 2017 was the top four years, right? 21 was the top and then now 25 potentially could be a top. So again, layperson, like when I hear you speak to me, everything you say makes sense to me now. I'm like looking at an audience who, when I share these videos or talk to them, they're not techno technical analysts. Two points. One is, I think what you said about the software is very interesting because people think about Bitcoin as software, technology and risk. On. So to your, one of your points is there is right now a lot of concern with regards to software and AI. One of the things I heard this week was how AI is so, just so disruptive to the software industry that there's like people are talking about software, software sector going to zero, which seems insane considering how strong it's been for so long. SaaS, software as a service, I know you're gonna have a lot to. You're so that's one point and actually if you want to talk on that right now, go for it. [00:21:06] Speaker A: Yeah, of course. I mean ultimately this is an informational asymmetry. You and I both know and you know, potentially the folks who you're sending this to and are listening to it, we understand that Bitcoin's monetary properties allow it to trade as the apex risk off asset. Right? It's geopolitically neutral, it's absolutely scarce, it does everything that gold does, but better, you know. And so ultimately every, this existing correlation in the market, it's not something that will last. And so understanding that every single time that Bitcoin has one of these major sell offs, it's driven by a broader move in risk appetite, then it makes for a huge buying opportunity. You know, ultimately the narrative surrounding Bitcoin are that it, it's sort of, if you look at just market pricing and these correlations and you judge them for what they are, the market is telling you that it's trading Bitcoin as if it were a technology rather than a commodity. And so every single time that Bitcoin sells off as a result of that correlation, this decline in risk appetite, it becomes an area where accumulation makes sense. So that's sort of, you know, my, my, my high level, not very specific answer on it, you know, and I, I do believe this is something that's going to go away in time. I think it's something that's going to wane and it's not going to be an opportunity that's present forever. It's going, going to be a multi year process though, right. And I think one of the things that will be really helpful for Bitcoin is clearing the brush fire relative to the rest of the crypto market. Most cryptocurrencies that are not Bitcoin have Very little if any fundamental value. The value proposition of bitcoin, which is better money, absolutely scarce money is a value proposition that everybody can get behind. It solves the world's foremost acute problem, which is the store of value problem. Everybody's wealth is inflating away. People need a store of value. Bitcoin is the most easily accessible. Not only is it that, but it also is the best store of value because it's absolutely scarce, it's completely geopolitically neutral and it is digital. Right. So it's the perfect Money for the 24 when we're feeling this inflationary problem most acutely and technology is more advanced than ever. So you know that that's ultimately the way that I think about how bitcoin trades now versus versus how it's going to trade one. [00:22:59] Speaker B: Yeah, I love that. And one key word in what you just said to me was accumulation. So bringing it back to what you do and how you and I started having a dialogue with one another through first, through direct Message and now is you provide and Horizon provides a unique opportunity, which is what I actually want to get into because I am exploring this for myself. You are currently, as far as I know, not available in my state where I reside, which is Michigan right now. But when we started talking of Q4 of 2025, Bitcoin was trading in the hundred level. And I was thinking, okay, I want to convert my home equity, some of my equity into bitcoin. And I had a number in my head. Even knowing going into it, I'm like, you know what? I've been through this. I've been on this ride a few times. I could get in at 125 and it's going to go down to 50 or 40. I could try to time this thing or not even. Or knowing that I already had an average in my mind, like, okay, I don't know how long this process takes, but if I can get in even at that time I was like, if I. I had 125 in my mind because that's where it's trading at. And I'm like, I feel early people. This is for. This is just. I think you understand this. This is for people who are watching that that are like, I don't get. I don't understand why bitcoin people are crazy. If you think bitcoin's going to a million or 10 million or half a million or 200 or 300,000, we're still early people. See an asset, myself included. This was my last cycle. Like Kind of how I started, how I felt more than I do today is you see an asset go from a dollar or less than a dollar to a hundred thousand dollars and then you think, oh man, I missed the boat. So kind of touching on another point that you brought up. There's all of this other cryptocurrency out there and younger people are just honestly, younger people don't have money. There are younger people like an Alex Hormozi that has hundreds of millions of more dollars than I do. But for the general population of younger people, they're not dealing in those numbers. So they don't really have the problem that bitcoin solves. Their problem is I need more money, I need to make more massive gains. And bitcoin's already made those massive gains. So I need to find the next thing that is going to do what bitcoin does. But the reality is is none of those other things are going to solve the problem that bitcoin solves. And that's a very hard pill to swallow, especially for like maybe an XRP crowd or other alternative coins. And I'm not going to use the S word because I don't want to be derogatory about it. I was young, I know what that feels like to want to make a big windfall in a short amount of time. But looking at my population, I'm Gen X. I don't like. I'm not necessarily looking to make the next windfall. I'm sure we all fantasize about that lottery ticket. I'm looking to preserve my capital. I want to store some wealth over time. I have kids, I want to have a little bit of something to pass down to the next generation. And this is going to be a lead into what you're actually offering. And what I want to hear more from you about is in terms of the actual product is home prices are not necessarily going to give you that 10x,000x multiple that they have over the last half a century. Because it's unfortunate that wealth has become. Homes have become a store of value for wealth and losing their utility. So young people can't even get into houses anymore because the prices have gotten astronomical. And if you do get into them, you think you're going to see the same returns that the last two generations had from buying homes for thousands of dollars and seen them multiply into the millions. You think you're going to go to the hundreds of millions, especially in the mid range. Yeah, you're always going to have the high end luxury that's Always going to be a game of escalation. But for the general population, this is a big problem as far as I see it, and I imagine you see it that way too, because what you're offering is a solution to that problem. [00:27:30] Speaker A: That's right, yeah. So homeownership, obviously young people are increasingly priced out of homes and so naturally they sort of move into this world of financial nihilism where they feel they can't get ahead. And so what they try to do is buy different variations of a lottery ticket. Crypto is chief among them. The number one misconception to get out of the way is that there will not be another Bitcoin. Bitcoin ultimately is on its way to monetizing, to becoming a global neutral reserve asset. So we're talking about a market cap in excess of hundreds of trillions of dollars. And so millions and millions of dollars per btc. Currently it's trading at a discount to that theoretical total addressable market, which is $100 trillion plus. And beyond that, you know, I take the position that Bitcoin could siphon away all of the monetary premium that is in other assets, this excess trapped capital that should not be in assets. One of the chief offenders of this is real estate, is homes. You know, ultimately, if you take a look back through the 50s, 60s and 70s, the median home price was in the tens of thousands of dollars, right? We're talking $70,000 for the typical home in the 1970s right now. And relative to wages, you're talking about three years worth of wages. Right now, the average home price in the United States is upwards of $420,000. And so you take the median wage, it's about seven to eight years of the typical American wage. And so whereas it previously cost about two or three years worth of your wages to purchase a home, now it costs nearly a decade of your wages to purchase a home. And so it's understandable that young people feel, people feel priced out. But why is that, right? Why is it that homes appreciated so much? Is it because all of a sudden they got vastly better in terms of their quality? Well, that's one thing. Square footage has certainly increased. It's increased by about 35% since the 1970s. But that still does not explain the more than doubling in the amount of wages it takes to purchase a home. And so that comes from another place, right? It's not scarcity, right. Homes are being built obviously more, but it's not a purely supply side issue. It's a, it's a denominator issue. It's an issue of the money being debased at such a rate that capital flows into assets that are relatively scarce and real estate is a relatively scarce asset. So home prices have been inflated artificially just because of printed money well beyond their utility value. And so for folks who own homes, they aren't necessarily a great savings vehicle. But what we've done with Horizon is we've made it so that you could make your home into a superior savings vehicle. So what we've created is a process for homeowners to convert their home equity into Bitcoin with full ownership over the Bitcoin. We don't take a claim on it while retaining your home without debt, monthly payments or any type of loan or term limit. So really what we're envisioning here is a world where homes are priced back down towards their utility value. But in the meantime, what we allow for homeowners to do is to take advantage of the fact that their home is massively overvalued relative to what it should be valued at. Not only that, but also the fact that it's not keeping up with inflation. If you ascribe to the, the real rate of inflation, right, the real rate of goods and the growth in the price of goods and services, the reported rate is just over 3% if you factor in monetary debasement, right? If you take a look at monetary inflation, you're looking at more like 8 to 9% a year in terms of devaluation of your money. And so ultimately, if home prices nationally, they're rising less than 2% right now on an annual basis, you're losing about 5 to 7% on your money every single year that you keep your money strictly in your home equity. And so what we've allowed folks to do is to swap out of this asset that is returning them a negative return after factoring in inflation and, and into an asset that has done many, many multiples of that over multi year timeframes. Obviously, Bitcoin is hugely volatile on short timeframes. Like the timeframe we're experiencing now, it falls, but over long timeframes it has outperformed basically every major macro asset class. And so that's functionally like the thesis of Horizon is that your home is your largest asset, but it's not working hard enough for you. What we've created is a process for people to take their home and turn it into an asset that works as hard as the rest of their portfolio without disrupting their monthly, monthly bills. Right? One of the big reasons why people decide not to leverage their home or to purchase a financial asset is because it's an additional monthly obligation and the majority of homeowners simply don't have the monthly cash flow. In order to keep up with that extra obligation, we've created a process where you don't have to worry about the monthly payment. You don't have to worry about giving up any of your Bitcoin. The Bitcoin is fully yours and effectively for the length of time that you're staying in the house, you can basically allow it to appreciate and perform better for you and leverage that equity, whereas otherwise it would be sitting there. So that's the thesis behind Horizon. And we've seen tremendous success so far, a great deal of interest, many, many, many homeowners that have been funded. It's a very seamless and efficient process. Takes about two to three weeks and we're very, very excited for the future of the company. [00:32:11] Speaker B: Yeah, that's amazing. So, so my question is, I actually have a lot of questions in this regard because I, this is something again, with the price coming down, I'm kind of thrilled. I hope I, I hope the price goes down. I hope it, you know, stays down for a period of time so that I could, you know, get in, accumulate some cheap Bitcoin for the time being. But that being aside, how does Horizon make its. How does this financially viable for Horizon? [00:32:41] Speaker A: It's a good question. So homeowners don't want to be financially long at their home. I mean, some people do, some people purchase homes purely for the sort of value aspect of it. But you're narrowing yourself into one zip code where you inherit a lot of zip code risk, a lot of geographic risk. Your home could be wiped out. If it's insurance, that's less of a problem. But if your family's living in it or renters are living in it, that becomes a massive problem. And so ultimately, the way that Horizon makes its money is that we are financially long the home itself. Basically, the way that we've structured it is you're selling us a share of your home's future value in exchange for Bitcoin today. And so us as a company and the financing providers that we've connected with are interested in the long term appreciation of the home. And that's the case with most, most, you know, typical financial folks. [00:33:23] Speaker B: Right. [00:33:24] Speaker A: Why on earth do you think the mortgage is the backbone of the US economy? It's because banks are long real estate. They're long homes. They're more than willing to lend money to people who are going to get into homes. It's this perpetual feedback loop because everybody wants to own a home. And so fundamentally, the way that we make money with our, with our capital providers is that we are financially long the home. We take a position in the home's future value, and then in return, the homeowner receives bitcoin. Now, in the future, we would love to find capital providers that also take a share in the bitcoin upside so we can do the exact same. Being a bitcoin company, that's ideally what we'd like to do. We believe that bitcoin is the better money and so we want to earn in it. But for the time being, the way we have it structured is we have no claim in the bitcoin whatsoever. We're financially interested in the future growth of the house. And in exchange for the home's future value, whether it's up or down, we give you bitcoin today. So that's. That's how we are financially interested during this contract, and that's how we make our money as a business, per se. [00:34:18] Speaker B: Yeah, that makes sense to me. I. You correct me if I'm wrong here, because I. I'm thinking this through and the way I see it, for the audience listening, I'm not a hardball guy. I am like a regular person that I am hoping to just attract other regular people around me that. Just thinking these things through logistically. So when I hear what you're saying, I think to myself, and I've actually seen someone criticize or make this comment like, if you think the bitcoin's worth more than the home, and let me finish this full thing, because, and I know you will, but if you think the bitcoin is going to go up at a faster rate than the home, then why would you want to take any value in the home when you could just get the bitcoin? And I'm going to give the answer to this because this is what I'm thinking it is, and you'll correct me if I'm wrong. Trap Capital, the way to fund the bitcoin purchase is through the equity in the home. The only way to unlock that equity in the home other than refinancing, which to your point, is another monthly expense for the homeowner, you are able to unlock the home equity into a bitcoin product. And then you can. Doesn't matter that they're getting the bitcoin, Your cut is on the appreciation of the home value. And for the homeowner they have to under. They have to be someone like me, honestly, where they. They value Bitcoin. If you don't get bitcoin, then this is not the product for you. But if you are someone that gets bit bitcoin and you are accepting, not even accepting, but you are, I don't know what the right word is subscribing to the idea that this is going to be the asset of the future and it's going to have the appreciation that it's had over the years. Maybe not to the same extent, but versus like an S&P 500, it's going to outperform. If you subscribe to that, then you're taking a bet that it's going to outperform the value of your house. And for you guys, even though, you know, yeah, bitcoin is the better asset. But there's no way to untrap capital to just purchase bitcoin if there's no capital to untrap. [00:36:29] Speaker A: Yeah, I mean, the, the thing is like, otherwise we wouldn't have a company, right? You know, we wouldn't be serving homeowners or serving anybody if our business model was buying bitcoin. Right? The same can be said for like a bitcoin exchange, right? If they believe in the future of bitcoin so much, why are they selling bitcoin to people? Why aren't they just buying it? Well, they are buying it, right, with the proceeds from their business, which is selling bitcoin to people and custodying on their behalf and offering different types of financial services on top of that, potentially. So, you know, the, the, the, the easy answer, and I kind of alluded to it, the, the second part, I alluded to it in my last answer, is that otherwise we wouldn't have a business, right? We would just be buying bitcoin and doing nothing with it at the individual level. That's what you want to do. And for us, again, the second part of my answer, what we would like to do ideally is create a model where we also have a certain percentage of the bitcoin that we take, you know, whenever the contract term is up. But those are much harder capital structures to develop, and they're even harder capital structures to find capital partners for. So in our existing model, we're solely financially interested in the future of the home. Some of the proceeds, of course, that we make are being used to stack bitcoin for our own personal business, Treasury. But, you know, that's why we have it structured the way we do currently. Right. Number one, otherwise we wouldn't have a business. And number two, because it's difficult to find capital providers that want to take a share of the bitcoin appreciation. That said, this business model is superior for homeowners who are not looking to give up any of their Bitcoin that they purchased through us at some point in the future. You know, they're swapping their dormant home equity into Bitcoin, this much higher growth asset. And in doing so, they're not giving up any of their Bitcoin's appreciation for the time that they're with us. They're giving up a share of their home's future appreciation. So really, you know, it's a speculative attack thesis. It's arbitraging out of your largest asset that's depreciating in real terms as the US dollar inflates away and into one that's designed specifically to outperform as a result of monetary debasement. [00:38:13] Speaker B: Yeah, I really appreciate what you're doing, and I think it's like I said, I had you on because I think it's a very unique product. And what states are you currently available in? [00:38:25] Speaker A: Geez, it's a large amount. Let me pull it up. [00:38:28] Speaker B: So currently I want you to list everyone. Say it out loud. And because I know how fast you talk, you could probably do it in a minute. [00:38:36] Speaker A: It. You got it. [00:38:37] Speaker B: Okay. [00:38:37] Speaker A: So the big ones are California and Florida, right? California and Florida, obviously two of the largest states in the country. But if we run through the whole gamut, we're in Arizona, California, Washington, D.C. delaware, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, Vermont, and Wisconsin. So that's 18 states, and obviously 19 areas if you count Washington, D.C. so we're available in a lot of places. We've served customers from every single one of those states at this point, primarily California and Florida. Those are two most popular states because you have a really large population of bitcoiners in each of them. And California is also the largest state in the union. The next big state that most people are requesting is the state of Texas. Obviously we have requests from Michigan. I know, Mark, that's where you live. But Texas is the major one that folks are asking for. And thankfully, we're going to be available in some form in Texas during the year 2026. That's our timeline for it. Before the end of the year, we will be available in Texas, which is a very long time, but it's one of the harder states to crack as far as regulation goes. So we're working on it actively. The aim is to be in all 50 states as soon as possible so that we can offer this product to everybody sea to shining sea. [00:39:44] Speaker B: What happens like when the person sells, like how does it work in terms of. Let me reframe this because one of the things is because I am in a state that you do not currently offer this, what is like a regulatory. Regulatory hurdle that you have that Horizon? [00:40:02] Speaker A: Yeah. Not necessarily hurdles, it's just that each state requires different licensing. Some states we have to acquire our mortgage broker licensing, other states we do not. [00:40:10] Speaker B: Right. [00:40:10] Speaker A: Horizon isn't technically a mortgage, but in some states it's viewed as that or the licensing that is required overlaps with mortgage licensing. So it's just a very long and complex process. It's not so much regulatory hurdles to jump through. The regulations are clear and they're very outlined and it's just a function of being a startup and acquiring all of those licenses. That's the main hurdle that we're facing so far. [00:40:32] Speaker B: Yeah, that makes sense to me, man. Joe, I really appreciate your time and I really appreciated having you on. I think your insights into the market and your like daily analysis and how you're following it is fantastic. I just think you pack a lot of alpha into a very short amount of time which is very commendable and I wish you the best, the best with this company and I really hope you guys get to my state and for the listeners you should be looking into this. And if you're in one of the states that's already doing it, this is not a paid thing. This is like we're doing all this kind of educational stuff for free. So this is, this is me as a non sponsored person just saying I'm looking into this. I think it's very interesting. If you're someone in a state where Horizon's being offered and you and you have interest in bitcoin or you're thinking about bitcoin, this is something I would look at. Like what? It's not hard to find. You have a website, the website explains details. I could probably even just put a link in here at some, you know, when I post this. [00:41:40] Speaker A: Join Horizon.com for anybody who is interested. [00:41:43] Speaker B: There you go. And do you have any final parting thoughts for our audience? [00:41:48] Speaker A: You know what I'll say is that ultimately days like this can be scary and it may happen for a while. Nobody knows exactly when the bottom for bitcoin will be in. Nobody can claim to be able to time the bottom with accuracy. All you can do is take a look at key levels underneath. You understand the risks associated with investing and only invest as much as you are willing to. That will allow you to sleep at night. Right. Ultimately you don't want to invest in such a way that you get shaken out during these periods either emotionally or technically. [00:42:15] Speaker B: Right. [00:42:16] Speaker A: Like leveraging your Bitcoin through a Bitcoin backed loan or something like that in order to buy more or any other sort of lending that introduces liquidation risk. Risk that can be very difficult to weather during times like this. So ultimately during these times of volatility, understand that this asset is monetizing to a multi trillion dollar one. Right now we're probably about to break underneath that that one trillion dollar mark as far as Bitcoin's market cap is concerned if we are to hit those lower levels. So zoom out. Use these zones as a buying opportunity. Use periods like this to educate yourself and understand the asset you're holding and then your conviction will allow you to hold through these volatile periods. Periods. [00:42:50] Speaker B: I love it. Fantastic. Joe, please stay on just for a few minutes because I have some still have some questions for you. Anyone who's paid attention, like comment, subscribe. I'm trying to do more content like this where I'm interviewing unique voices in the space. Like I'm listening to spaces and I'm hearing unique things being said that I'm not seeing in the mainstream media. So I'm not a conspiracy theorist guy. That being said, like I like having people who have different just unique products that are out here and everybody have a great rest of your day. I know, like if you're not watching this when things are actually tanking, then take all of this into consideration. And Joe, thanks again for being on man. I really appreciate having you here. [00:43:36] Speaker A: Absolutely. Mark, thank you so much. [00:43:38] Speaker B: Yeah, awesome. Thank you for watching this episode of the Money Adjustment. If you want more like comment and subscribe, you can follow me on X at Mark Kramer until the next episode. Stay healthy and wealthy.