Episode Transcript
[00:00:01] Hello. Welcome to the money adjustment. I'm your host, Doctor Mark Kramer, DC. I am a chiropractor who loves investing and trading. Are you interested in what's moving markets and your money? Great.
[00:00:16] Let's get started.
[00:00:19] On Monday, October 7, 2024, I recorded a live trade of Tesla. Unfortunately, my trading screen did not record. As a result, I decided to release this episode as an audio only. Though you will not see any charts, you will gain insight into the psychology of day trading.
[00:00:38] Hey, good morning, all. So today I'm going to do another live trade. So, quick recap, four weeks ago, I took a trade on Palantir. It was a live trade, it was successful, and I posted that trade. That whole week was actually a really good week. I did very well trading wise. I had a win rate of close to eight out of ten. So out of every ten trades, I won eight of them. Then the following week, it reversed on me. So I had a win rate of probably two to ten and pretty much gave back everything I had from the week before. And that set me back for a while mentally. And I decided to take a break from trading to examine what I did wrong and come BaCk with a fresh perspective. So I did that. Last week, I had successful tRades. I'm up from last week. Now. This week I am looking to do some really focused trading. Tesla is reporting they have an event on 1010 and people are anticipating the robo taxi event from Tesla. We'll see what actually happens.
[00:01:48] But in anticipation of that event, I think, I'm guessing that Tesla will rally. So that just gives us a couple days. I'm not worried about a couple of days, I'm just worried about TOdaY. So I have my chart up here. On the chart, I have a couple blue lines, horizontal lines, to show levels where the StOCk consolidated. So one of the interesting things about TesLa, it's one of the most traded stocks. So there's a lot of volume, there's high liquidity, it's one of the ones that's easy to get and easy to get out. And the lines are pretty reliable, actually, because the larger the volume, the more stable the price action. So not the price, because the price of Tesla is a very. It's a very volatile stock and the price fluctuates ten to some days. So if you're a trader, that can actually work in your favor. What I have set up on Tesla today is it's currently trading at 250 and there's a level of support at 248.36 and then another one at 247.
[00:02:55] I'm betting it's going to come in to that 248 level. So I already set a buy order up for 100 shares at 248.85.
[00:03:06] I'm willing to risk a dollar on these hundred shares, meaning if the stock breaks the 248 85 level, which I'm not anticipating on catching the bottom, I'm willing to let it fall back to the next level, which is actually 247. But I don't want it to fall all the way back. I want to reassess.
[00:03:26] So I have a stop loss at 247.85. So I would lose $100 if the trade is unsuccessful. If the trade is successful, my profit target is $5 above the 248.85. So at 253.85, I would take profit on this and the next level up. I mean, Tesla could run to 256 98. So depending on how strong the market is in the morning, I might actually.
[00:03:53] I might actually. If I. If I don't watch the trade at all. I already have my order put in for the 248.85. If it fills. If it fills, I'm willing to risk $100 to the downside for a profit target of $500. So that's a risk reward of one to five. If you are going to trade, you want to identify your risk and your reward.
[00:04:19] That's what professional traders do. That's what people who aren't just gambling in the stock market do. Doesn't mean you can't make money. There's lots of ways to do it. But if you're looking to have a disciplined way of trading, risk reward is a big part of that. You'll hear me talk about risk reward continuously if you follow me and listen to my trades. So I have the trade set up. It's 915. I may pause the recording until the market opens and then we'll follow the price action and we'll see what happens if I hit the price target, how long it takes me to hit the price target. Yeah, that's the day. That's the trade. So I'll probably make this a special episode of the podcast. That's a second note here. A year ago, I actually going back even further, about two years ago, when my daughter was in her senior year in high school, she was in a broadcasting class and she was doing announcements for her school and she was doing podcasts with her friends and teachers. And I thought, yeah, that's pretty cool. I wouldn't mind doing a podcast. That started my interest in doing a podcast. I had about six months where I was trying to engage my uncle, who had done a successful podcast before, and I thought he would be a good resource and a good person to riff off of, and I just love talking to him. So it was a good excuse for us to chat. And after about six months of a lot of technical issues and no clear direction for the podcast, I decided to enlist some help, and I hired a coach to help me kind of hone in on what I'm trying to do with this podcast and educate me on things that I didn't know. Through these calls I had with my coach, I came to realize that I really like talking about the stock market. I've been following the stock market for, I mean, really just decades, but I haven't been as active as I am now until 2020. And if you're around in March 2020, you know what happened then. And it gave an opportunity for a lot of people to explore interests while they were on lockdown and at home and figuring out what to do with their lives. So I watched countless hours of YouTube videos, CNBC, and I just took multiple courses on options trading, cryptocurrencies. And through this education, I've got a lot stronger in terms of trading the stock market.
[00:06:53] So that kind of brings us where we're at today. That's why I'm doing these podcasts and these videos partly on the stock market. What I realized is, as I was doing the podcast, the guests that I were getting, while they had some interest in the market, were actually founders, small business owners and entrepreneurs. And I'm looking to start a business, probably with my wife, within the next couple of years. She recently graduated from nursing school, and she's a nurse practitioner, and she is specializing in hormone replacement therapy, which is a cool topic. And it's going to have its own episode at some point. That's where we're at. I made a commitment at the beginning of 2024 to my new, actually, it was my New Year's resolution to get 21 podcast episodes out by the end of the year. So I am currently at five episodes. I have two that are scheduled, which will bring me to seven. If this gets posted as an episode, this will be number eight. And that will still. I'll still have more ahead of me to do. I'll still need to do 13 more podcasts. Um, I have a few more calls lined up, and, uh, I have faith that I'm going to hit my 21, even if it winds up that I do, uh, ten of them in the month of December. But, uh, I have a feeling we'll, I won't need to do that many by then. My goal is to have the 21st, mid September, and that way I can relax into the holidays and get mentally prepped for a possible season two. So back to the trade where Tesla is coming in. It's a 249.87. I'm waiting for the 248.85. I don't know if it's going to hit. There is a level of support at 249.86, so it may get a reaction. The MACD, if you're a technical analysist or you use technical analysis to trade, the MACD is one of the oscillators that allows you to guess on a change in direction. So right now, Tesla's on a micro downtrend. It's actually in a macro uptrend, but micro is in the timeframe that I'm trading. I have the 15 minutes chart up right now, but I usually trade two minutes. But I went to the 15 minutes because I wanted a little bit of a longer timeframe to let this particular trade play out. Yeah, it's 919. We'll see how it goes with this one. Yeah, I'll probably edit some stuff out so that I can make this a little bit more concise. Because I started a little bit early, I wasn't sure how I was going to talk through the trade. And let's see, 249.80.
[00:09:48] We'll see if I even get filled, there's a good chance it could just recover from where it's currently at.
[00:09:55] Other indicators that I'm using are the moving averages. I have the 100, an 80 day moving average, and the nine day moving average. So a lot of people look at the 52 hundred day moving averages, but I was. I did a course a while back, and they use the 180 in the nine day, and that's when I set up my chart. And so that's the one I use. I can't even tell you why I use it now, which is kind of ridiculous, but that's what happens. You kind of set up your strategy and your discipline and you play off of it. And honestly, I see reality reactions on these lines, so I like using those moving averages. Another indicator that I use is RSI. RSI will tell you if a stock is overbought or oversold. If a stock is overbought, that suggests that there could be a reversal in the other direction and vice versa. If it's oversold, there could be a reversal in the other direction. So if it's oversold, chances are it will. The next move will be up in a relatively short time frame. And if it's. Or it'll be up in the timeframe that you're trading it. So whether it's short or long, it's up to you. You decide your own time horizons, and that's RSI oversold, overbought, a main indicator that he uses, volume. So people who have been trading for a while, they just use price action primarily. They just watch what the price is doing, and they look at the patterns and can trade off of that. Volume is huge, because if there's a large amount of volume, that will tell you a certain level of interest. So if stock moves a lot in price on a heavy volume, that's a very bullish signal. So that's a reason to look at volume. I look at the volume average.
[00:11:43] So the volume average is helpful, because if a stock is trading more volume than its average volume, that's also a. It's not necessarily a bullish indicator, because if it's in a downtrend, downtrend, it could be a bearish indicator. But it. It helps to see how much activity is in the stock, how many people are trading it. And that gives you a sense of liquidity. So those are the things that I look at. There's honestly infinite metrics and indicators that you could view while you're trading.
[00:12:18] If you're actively trying to get better at trading and watching videos and things, you'll kind of pick up on which ones make sense to you and resonate with you.
[00:12:27] Actually, I should say another big one that I use is the volume weighted average price. I really like that one. Webull, thus far does not allow you to do AV Wap, which is anchored volume weighted average price. That's an episode in and of itself. I always forget the guy's name. Brian Shannon wrote two great books in terms of timing different timeframes on the market. Is the first one and not the name of the book, but that's what it's about, is analyzing the time frame. And the second one is all on anchor volume weighted average price. Av wap. That one's interesting.
[00:13:09] I'm not going to get into it because it's a little bit involved, but the regular VWAP is just the day before. It's the volume weighted. So it's the price at what the most activity is coming in at.
[00:13:24] That's the simplest way I can say it. I'm going to back off of that, because if you're not familiar with it, then I'm not the person to teach you about it in this moment. So, price. 249.906 minutes before the market opens it is coming towards my buying price. I would love to get a fill because I'm actually happy that it's coming in before the market opens, because a lot of times when it rallies before the market opens, then there's usually a reversal. So if it's coming in before the market opens, that would be. That would BE a cool place to get a reversal. I have a very tight stop. I have a very motivating. I don't know motivating, but I have a good risk reward. Five to one, that's pretty solid. Even two to one is usually good. BUT TESLA is one of those stocks where you can get a big move and there is a catalyst on the horizon, and that's what I'm playing off of now. Trading is different than investing. I'm also an investor in TESLA. I recently bought the dip when I was trading in the, which has played out fantastic for me. I am still holding that position. I think Tesla at some point could get over $300. That's a separate thing. Investing is not trading. All right, so we are starting to see a little bit of activity at the 249 77 level because it just broke that one top level of resistance. So I'm banking on the next level of resistance, which is the 248 36. I have a order at 248 85, and I'm willing to go down all the way to 247.85 for this trade. Might just let this run and edit out this part of it. Okay, so Tesla just took a nice drop into the 249 level.
[00:15:15] It's a higher likelihood now that I'm going to get filled at 248.85.
[00:15:20] Let's see. I'm very close. There's a lot of little bit more activity happening. A little bit more movement at this level. Oh, whoa. Broke down to 248 85, but it did not get filled. Why didn't I get filled? All right, it came into my level, but I didn't get filled. So I don't know what happened. Let's say time enforce, good to cancel, which should allow me the after trading hour. So this is in the pre market. I am able to trade pre market. Let's see. I don't know what's going on. All right, so I'm annoyed because it had. It hit 248 75. So it passed my. My buy order, but I didn't get filled. So I don't know why I didn't get filled pre market. I have to look into that later. And my only options were day and good to cancel. And I thought, good. Okay, so, okay, now I'm filled. The market open. It's 930. I am filled. And let's see. It looks like there's some movement right now. It's still in the downtrend. There's fighting at this level.
[00:16:21] Let's see. It could go to the 248.
[00:16:25] So it's coming down to 248 36. And again, there's fighting. It could get all the way down to. Whoa. All right. And it's picking back up. Kind of playing out almost exactly the way that I thought it would thus far. So it's still early. Hard to say what's going to happen.
[00:16:44] Okay. I'd love to see it regain. All right, so Tesla is now going back up. It touched down to 248 36. Telling you these levels, it's uncanny how precise they can be. So just knowing the levels is not enough, because if it was, then it would be easy. The levels just give you a sense of where you're looking at. So it looks like I might even get stopped out. It could go down and then I could get stopped out and go right. It could go right back up. But that's how it works. And I'll reassess. If I see a lot of activity on the way back up, I might reenter the trade. So I did. I got stopped out. So I lost $100. It's coming in. It's coming in. The next level is, like, 247, and then we're looking at, like, 245 after that. So that's a big drop. It's still coming in. It's still coming in. It looks like the overall market is one of the things that I filed to see. What the overall market is doing is the spy, which is the. Is a trading vehicle for the S and P 500. It's the spider for the S and P 500.
[00:17:47] And that one's just a little bit down. So the overall market trend is down. Let's see. It's bouncing all over. Tesla is bouncing. Bouncing around that 247 level. Yeah.
[00:18:00] Okay, so now Tesla's touching down to the moving averages. It just touched the nine day moving average, and it looks like it's going to touch the. It's nearing the 180 day moving average. So at this point, I'm just looking for a reversal in trend. I mean, I might even wind up getting in a higher price than I got stopped out, which is totally fine, because look how much it went down afterwards. I would have been down another couple hundred dollars if I didn't just allow myself to get stopped out. And I'd rather get back in when I could tell the trend is reversed and it hasn't reversed yet. So who knows how low it's going to go before it starts turning around. If it turns around. Yeah, it's really. That one level is seeing a lot of activity. All right, I might even do this one more.
[00:18:49] I think I have a one more trade. While I'm waiting for Tesla to play out, I would do maybe the 245. Let's see the 245. It could go all the way down to 244.21. So let's say it goes down to 244. That would be a dollar to the downside for. So if I do a stop loss at 244 and take profit, it's at 245. If I go to two, I just don't know if it's going to hit 250. And the downside, if it's trading the way it is currently now, it could. So let's just say 250. That's the same risk reward. That's. That's a dollar to the downside and $5 the upside. But it already looks like Tesla's starting to recover a bit, so I might not get that 245. We'll see if it gets over. I'll just have to adjust. As I'm watching the trade play out. I'm still on the 15 minutes. I should watch the two minutes, see what's happening there. Looks like 246 was the touch point and it's starting to come back up.
[00:19:50] I don't like the activity because I'm seeing more of a downward trend at this point.
[00:20:00] Yeah, it looks just nasty, honestly. I still think that 245, I would consider taking a long position again. All right, it's already starting to come back up from that 246. It's at 247. It could be just people just taking that quick trade right there and it's already starting to come in.
[00:20:18] Once it retakes 247.50, almost. Maybe 248, depending on how it behaves at that level, I would consider entering higher also. But I still think it still kind of leaning towards it coming in a little bit more. All right, so, yeah, I think. I think there's just, there's going to be some bottom feeders like me. I'm waiting for it to come in just a little bit more. Just a little bit more. Oh, man. Uh, maybe that maybe 245.50. No, it doesn't look like it's going to want to do that. It's already starting to getting some strong, uh, move back up. Yeah, let's see 247. Yeah, I'm going to change it. Let's do 247.
[00:21:05] Yeah, it's already going up. 248. Okay, so, like I said, I'll probably wind up getting in higher and then I will have to change it. Seven. Seven. I'm not comfortable with that because there's a good chance it could just, again, wick me out, but that's how it goes. So let's. Let's give it a shot. Right, 247. So, 248, 200 and 4700 and we'll take profit at 252.
[00:21:31] So I'm changing my risk reward because I don't like the way it's trading. So it's a dollar to the downside and it would be $4 to the upside. It's already coming in, actually, so, yeah, it's starting to move fast. The mornings move fast. We're only six minutes in. I'm not going to rush anything, just going to kind of watch and see how it plays out here. I do think it's going to go back up and then let's see, man. 246.28 would be the bottom. If it goes to 247. 50.
[00:22:07] 26. 50 maybe. All right, let's see. 246.50. Yeah, you're watching me think this through in real time. Alright, so it's coming in. It touched the. What did it touch? It touched the nine day moving average again. And now it's coming back in.
[00:22:26] Let's see. Yeah, it's coming in. So it's coming in. It's trading under VWAP, which is bearish. I still think it looks like it wants to come in before it goes back up, so I'll just be patient here. It didn't. Didn't really move. I mean, it kind of moved how I was thinking just worked out of not the direction I wanted it. So there's a lot of tug of war happening between the bears and the bulls at VWAP. It's just kind of bouncing between that level, which is now at 247.85. Let's see, two minutes. Let's look at the five minute. On the five minute, it does look like it's trying to recover. The bottom of the five minute is that 246.30 and above that is 248.60, which it looks like it's going to do.
[00:23:12] Yeah, now it's running. Forget it. 248 I'm going to do it. 248 buy and I'm going to stop loss. Actually bring my stop loss here to 247.01.
[00:23:29] So it's a dollar to the downside and to take profit. If I get filled now, it doesn't even look like I'm going to get filled. That's what happens. The trade will just get away from you. Let's see. It's coming back in. It's coming back in. I might get that, 248. That would be cool.
[00:23:43] Looks like I'm going to get that. 240 08:00 a.m. i. Going to get it. It's coming in. 248. 248.15. There we go. And I'm filled again. So now this is my second trade. So the first trade was a loss, lost $100.
[00:23:56] 2nd trade, we'll see how it plays out. I'm risking $100 again to try to make 252. So I'm trying to make dollar 400. So it's a four to one.
[00:24:08] The reason I brought down my Price Target is because it. It's just trading more negatively than I thought it was. So I'm not going for that higher Price target. I might reevaluate as it gets closer to that number. Let's see, 38. It's kind of bouncing all over the place here. It looks like it might want to come in again. Yeah, it's going to come in again, so we'll see. So if I lose, I'm willing to lose about $300 today. So if I. If I. If this trade wipes me out of or takes out another hundred, then I still have $100 loss that I'm willing to risk for another trade and I could make back what I lost and then some. Yeah. Feeling. Feeling stronger about Tesla. It looks like. It looks like it's really trying to. Trying to hold on to that VWAP level, so. Right. Come on, Tesla. Yeah. Starting to come in again. So it looks like I might get stopped out for the second time today. So that'll be two. Two ls. Not yet, but, yeah, that was a big push to the downside there. So I have a stop loss at 247.01. It's really struggling in that low 247 level. Yeah, it's not looking good for me. It could be a double bottom, in which case I would look. Yep, I'm gonna get stopped out and 247.15. 240. 712. It's really pushing down the bears. Yep. And the Bears knocked me right out of. That's the second trade. So. So right now, I'm negative $200 for the day, but I'm okay because I feel confident with my trading. That's the thing. If you trade in a disciplined way and the trade works against you, you can lose money. It could still be a good trade.
[00:25:53] Yes. Winning money is a great trade, but if you did your. If you had your proper risk management and your risk reward ratio was correct and you just honored your stop loss, then that's a good trade. So you got to honor a good trade. Like that's a good trade. So like I said, I might give one more run into Tesla or maybe even look to something else to trade because Tesla's on the downside and I, like, I prefer to go long. And Vinia is coming in. It looks like it already had its move.
[00:26:24] Let's see. Nvidia. Let's see. Nvidia has actually a lot of room to run where it's at right now. It's kind of interesting. It might be a more interesting trade for me. And it's trading above its VWAP. So here we go. I am looking at switching from trading Tesla to going to Nvidia because Nvidia is looking like a stronger stock. 126. Gotta hold that 126 24 level. So I'm going to do 126 25 and Nvidia, because it's not as expensive as Tesla as a stock, I do double my shares. So I'll take 200 instead of 100 shares and looks like 126 25. Where would be my stop loss on that? So 125 25, that would be the $100. No, no. If I'm going 200 be less than that would be 125 75, no less. Yeah. 127.75. Let's see. I don't even think I'm going to get the 126 25, but we'll see. Yeah, it's already. Nvidia is actually looking very strong today. I don't love where it's trading. If I go 126 25, it's more like a one to one because I don't think it's. I don't know. We might have seen the high of the day in Nvidia. Just the rest of the markets looking kind of weak. There's just not. It's just not. Doesn't feel like a very exciting morning this morning. All right, let's see. It's coming in. I'm actually going to cancel this order. It's not feeling good about it. All right, so I canceled my order. Nvidia. I am going to go back to Tesla and see what Tesla is doing. Yeah, Tesla looks awful. So it's a short day for TesLa. It could come into that 245. If it comes to that 245 level, I would consider taking one more trade on it. So now if my risk reward is one to four and I've lost two trades ANd my risk dollar amount is $100, so I'm down $200.
[00:28:17] If I have a win rate of just 25%, if I just win one of my trades with a risk reward of one to four, then I can still end the day either at breakeven or positive.
[00:28:34] Say it's a 246. It's kind of fighting. It's a double bottom.
[00:28:38] It's coming back up, but it's just so weak. It just feels so weak and just kind of feel like it's going to keep coming in a little bit more.
[00:28:47] And if you miss a trade, you miss a trade. You don't want to force trades. You just want to look for good setups. And if you see a good setup, you take it. And if you don't, you don't. So Nvidia looks stronger. It just, I can. I can almost feel in my own energy level. When the market's exciting, you just feel excited. And when the market market is just like, what is the market trying to do? Then that's what you feel like. You're like. I don't really see a clear sense of direction. I don't get a strong bullish or bearishness. It's not like these aren't the best days to trade, because if there's not a lot of volatility, it doesn't give enough of a price range movement, a broad enough price range for you to actually make some money. So could just be a red day for me. Just down $200. I'll save, save my losses for another day.
[00:29:36] Yeah, we'll see. It's 947. So only 50, 1517 minutes into the trading day. All right. Nvidia is looking stronger to me than Tesla is, although Tesla is trying to come back alive, too, and it's trading a little bit lower. All right. It could be a. So tempted to get back into Tesla.
[00:29:56] All right. Like, 247, 247. If I do 247. If 246, it's already coming into 246. What if I do, like, 246? Down to 245? Oh, my God. Tesla is just looking crappy. See, Nvidia.
[00:30:12] Yeah. Again, Nvidia is not really doing anything.
[00:30:15] Just such a yucky day when I feel like this. I just feel like I should just walk away from the computer. This is for fun for me. So if you're, if this is your sole source of income, if trading is your sole source of income, then it's a different animal. So here's the other thing. I haven't taken any trades. I mean, I've taken trades, but I've lost two trades, and I'm hesitant to take another one. And it's 950. And my trading hours are between 911. So I'm either going to get stopped out in, stop loss, taking profit, or timing out. Those are the ways that I exit my trades. Stop loss, take profit, or timeout. So right now, see what it looks like it at 10:00. Let's see. So iffy right now. So I'm kind of bouncing back between Tesla and Nvidia. Nvidia is stronger. It's up 1% for the day. 1.5%. Tesla is opposite. It's down 1.6%.
[00:31:18] Tesla's in a downtrend. Nvidia's in an uptrend. Nvidia is looking a lot stronger. It has a lot more room to run to the upside, but it's also trading at the upper end of its range right now. It could just be a consolidation day. Who knows?
[00:31:33] Yeah, I'm not. Not thrilled. I'm not seeing. I'm not seeing any great setups when you don't see a good setup. Don't chase the trade. Let the trade come to you. All right, so Tesla's got the opposite thing going on. It's really been a crappy day for Tesla so far.
[00:31:48] We're just 20 minutes into the trading day, still at two. Like I said, that 240, 513 level. And then what would be the downside there? 244.21 would be the next level. I mean, it's already blowing through all these levels. I do feel like it's going to see a v shape. I just don't know when 51 Tesla caught a biddenness. All right, here we go. 246. All right, let's try it. I don't like this setup. This could be my last 1246 at 100. Willing to go down to 245. That's another $100.
[00:32:29] And I still think it can't get to 249 now. So that would be three. That would be a three to one risk reward, which isn't great because that would just be.
[00:32:40] Let's see. It's coming in. It's coming in to. Yeah, that 245, 50, huh? I do feel like the bearishness is going to run out on Tesla. At least I'm wanting the bearishness to run out on Tesla because I want to go long. If you were short Tesla, you just made a nice chunk of change.
[00:32:56] Let's see. And I do a tighter stop. I kind of like that 24 is going to be a bottom, but I don't know if it's going to get there. If we go 23, 49, I can get in at 2449.
[00:33:13] So let's see. So Tesla on the RSI, it's looking actually oversold. It is. It's oversold. It is. The MACD has been down. Down by. It's just so negative. It's just. Everything's negative. It's hard to go long when the trend is negative. But I'm also could see capitulation happening, happening, because at some point it's just going to get too low, too tempting. So LEt's say 244 25. 244.25. I'm willing to take a shot if it even gets filled. So it's 100 shares of TESLA. 244.25. And we're going to stop Loss that at 243.35 or 243.50. I don't even Want to go a full HUNDred. Let's do a shorter, less or 243.75. So 243.75. So it's a 50 cent downside move. If I get filled and I would TAke profit. It said percent. Let's see 30.
[00:34:19] No, no, two, three.
[00:34:21] What I say 75 and 244.25. Let's see if I get it by TESLA. I don't know if I'm going to get it at this POINT. Oh, wow. That's WAY in. You can see How Low that is. 4425. It's so FAR away. Oh, I didn't Have a take profit.
[00:34:39] Let's just see if I even get filled. So I have a buy order in for Tesla. It's going to be my third swing at Tesla. 244.25. It's not, doesn't. Looks like it's not coming in There. It looks like it's already starting to reverse. I might even not get that opportunity. So I'm going to close those out because it's already showing trend reversal. So now I got to look at 245, 244 50. Yeah, I don't like that I'm chasing this end here and I would, I would do 243 75. Keep this search. It's just to 244, actually, because then I would do a 50 cent downside and let's see if I can do that. Yeah, it can't even. Well, it's like, why is it so low there? 244.50. Oh, because it's already at 245.
[00:35:25] Oh, shoot. Right. So 245 50 I would have to do 245 50. I'm gonna have to close this out.
[00:35:32] Close that out.
[00:35:34] So we go 245 50 and stop loss at 244 50. Yeah, that would work. Let's do that. Let's do that. See, look, now I'm chasing it up. And when you're chasing it, it's not fun. Let's see 50. It does look like it's starting to reverse. I don't even know if I'm going to get filled at 245 50.
[00:35:57] I have a stop loss of another dollar to 244 50. And that'll be, that'll be my, that'll be the end of my day, if I. If I don't get it looks like I might not even get filled, so it may be a mute point. So let's look at the larger time frames. Yeah, it looks like it wants to start going. Reversing 30 minutes.
[00:36:19] It looks nasty. That just looks nasty. It could just be a terrible day for TesLa. Let's see. So it's getting closer to me, getting Filled. It's 245 60, 65 coming in. Coming in. Oh, 245 51.
[00:36:37] Oh, wow. It's really. People are trying to get in here, including myself, and it might not. Isn't that wild? 245 51 was where it dropped down to. And I have an order at 245 50. Oh, I'm getting filled. And I'm filled. So this is my third swing at Tesla. I'm not feeling overconfident. I wasn't as confident as I was when I initiated trading this morning. So I am currently $200 down because on the day, because I had two losing trades, this is going to be my third swing at TesLA.
[00:37:10] I have a stop loss at 244.50. I'm in at 245 50 and I'm going to try to take profit here. I should do my profit, take profit at.
[00:37:22] I mean, honestly, I don't feel good. I feel like it could retest 247 and then come right back in. So that's what the chart looks like. It's moving. It doesn't look like we're going to get any quick moves.
[00:37:36] And let's see. 247.24. It's already starting to reverse.
[00:37:43] Let's see.
[00:37:45] I'm going to have to set a higher price target because I want to kind of regain what I lost from today. I do think it could get back to the 248 level and depending on what kind of volume, it could go higher. I think, realistically, maybe 248. So what am I at? 245, 5248. That's $2.50 and I'm risking a dollar. So that's one to 2.5 risk reward.
[00:38:16] That's just where I think we're at right now. I'm going to put. I'll do 248, 22. 48.20 is my price target and I will reevaluate. Let's see, actually in a stop loss, shorter, because if it goes this way, it's going to really reverse. So I'm going to stop loss at 245.
[00:38:40] So it's a 50 cent downside to.
[00:38:45] If I go to 250, 48. Yeah, I want to try that 248. I don't know why it's not letting me set up price target here. I'll just stop loss where I originally said I would.
[00:38:56] Right here. The quantity of take profit and stop loss order should be smaller than the open position. My open position is 100, so I don't understand what's going on. It is smaller, so stop loss, 485 and take profit is. I want to go higher. It's just 2200, 247.50. I don't know why it's not letting me do this. That's really annoying me. My stop loss said I just don't have my take profit. I don't know why it's not letting me lock it in. So since I can't set my stop loss or my take profit, I'm going to actually, I think I could just put a sell order. And. Can I do that? 248, 5248.50 will let me sell? Yeah. Okay. I guess it'll let me do that.
[00:39:45] All right, let's try that. The stop price of the stop loss order should be higher than 248 50. Why?
[00:39:56] I don't understand what's happening here. All right, it's moving in my direction, but I'm having some technical issues that I haven't figured out yet. I could probably close my stop loss. So close this order.
[00:40:10] Then I do try this. So we'll do take profit at 248 and stop loss at the 240. There we go. $65. Let's do that. Maybe it's because I had an open order. Yeah, I had an open order, so that's why. So I had to close the stop loss that I already had and then reset up a price target and stop loss, which worked. Let's see. Yeah. Tesla is really struggling, but I still think I'm low enough that I could possibly make this work. Yeah, it's just. It's. It's fighting the VWAP level here. I actually have two lines. And I forget, like, this is a VWAP range I have set up versus just one. Usually, this would be one single line. So if you see a lot of lines on your chart, like, they call them the spaghetti charts, and it just makes it confusing. I think it makes it confusing if you don't know why you have the lines that you have.
[00:41:13] There's a lot of lines on here. But I'm not looking at those lines. Primarily, I'm looking at price action and I'm looking at volume. And then if I see something interesting, I just use these other lines as indicators and you can see the stock reacts off the lines, so there is value in having them there, because then you can say, oh, this stock might have a reaction here. It should have a reaction here. And if it doesn't, then what's going on?
[00:41:38] So, like, it completely resisted at VWAP. It got pushed back. The bears are coming in. They're selling it. It's coming back in, actually, because what's going on here? I'm thinking I don't want to even take a loss here, so I'm going to bring this up or just a real short loss or maybe no loss. So now I'm kind of like, if it comes back into my price, then I'm just not going to lose anything. I'm just going to close out at what I put in so that won't be any loss. When the stock starts to move in your direction, you can raise your stop loss, so that way you're still protecting yourself on the way up. So if this doesn't work out, I'm not going to lose any money on it. And that allow me one more trade. If I want to take another trade, that's 1007.
[00:42:30] I was hoping that I would be done by ten, but I'm not. And like I said, I'm going to either stop out at 11:00 or stop out when I've reached my stop loss for the day, like my total stop loss, which for today I said is $300, or if I hit my price target. And the ideal is that you hit your price target. If you hit your price target in a shorter period of time, that's when it just feels amazing and otherwise you're just grinding it out. But you could probably hear by the way I'm talking, I'm not overly excited one way or the other. Trading after you've been trading long enough should just be like another thing that you either do or don't do. Yeah, it looks like it's going to come back in. I'm going to get stopped out, maybe again. But if I get stopped out this time, it's going to be neutral. I will not have lost any money. Yeah, it looks like it's an inside day for the market, which just means it's trading in its range bound. A lot of stocks are just trading within their range. Yeah, not a lot of activity one way or the other. Yeah. Tesla looks like it wants to go short today. Not long. And I keep looking for a long, which is I have to change my psychology for today because it looks like the market wants to go short. I'm not a shorter. I do not like shorting stocks.
[00:43:47] Some people love it. It's just seeing the market in a different direction. I'm just gonna. So it's 1009. I'm GOnna try to edit this down because just a lot of things didn't really work the way I wanted them. I shouldn't say it didn't work the way I wanted them to. It just played out to the downside. So you're always playing your probabilities. You want to look, obviously, if you're going long, meaning you want a stock to go up, then you want it to go up, but you can't say for sure that it's going to go up. And that's why you have to cover your risk. To the downside. If you're aware of Your ranges of where you're trading, then you can be calm and you can take emotion out of it. It looks like TesLa. If it retakes VWAP, that would be amazing because now it looks like it wants to go at it. Again.
[00:44:42] It's trading between it's a VWAP and the nine day moving average, but it's trading below it's 182 hundred day moving averages. So let's see, this is on the two minute. Again, I'll go out, let's say go out to the five minute. Five minute is now in a uptrend, but not a strong one. Kind of a weak uptrend. It looks like it's more. Just wants to trade sideways. Could just be a sideways trading day, in which case I'm not really going to make any money. So however this trade plays out is how I'm going to end it. Because it's 1011. I'm not feeling the market today. So I don't even know if I'm going to wait till eleven.
[00:45:22] I will lick my wounds. Like I said on this one, I won't lose any more money. So if I stop at the end of this trade, I'll be down $200 for the day. And if the trade plays out in my favor, then I'll just be up $50. And that'll be, that's when you have to look at. It's like, is it time well spent? If you spend 2 hours and you only made $50, that's like, that's not fun.
[00:45:49] But it's better than spending 2 hours and losing $200. Yeah, it's coming back in. Getting a little bit stronger here. I'm actually going to raise my price target to 248.25.
[00:46:04] So $0.25 on 100 shares is $25.
[00:46:10] And then we're gonna. If it breaks a above its most recent high, which is 246.81, then I'm going to raise my stop loss, too, which, which will actually make me positive then, because even if it comes back in, my stop loss is above my entry, so that'll still be positive on the trade, it looks like it's going to do it. It's trying. It's trying. It really is. I always visualize bulls and bears on the opposite ends of a long rope playing tug of war, and that's kind of what it feels like. And it pulls in each direction. You're not sure who's really going to win, who's going to pull it, who's going to pull the other side all the way in, into the mud puddle in the center. Now it's pushing it up, pushing against that resistance level at the 247.
[00:47:05] All right, broke that level. All right, broke that level. I feel comfortable raising my stop loss at this point. So I'm at 24, 50, I'm raising my stop loss to 26. And that way, if it comes in, even if I, even if it hits my stop loss, I'll still be up on the trade, $50. And now it looks like I'm recovering the loss from this morning, kind of depending on the next couple ticks here. So I'm trading the two minute. Here it goes. Starting to move in my direction.
[00:47:40] Looks like we've shaken out the bears. I kind of feel like it's going to go back towards that 49. So I'm going to raise my price target and I'm going to raise my stop loss, but I'll wait till the candlesticks start to form. So when I say I'm trading the two minute, the candlesticks that I'm looking at are in a two minute timeframe.
[00:48:01] And right now, let's see. So on the two minute after the candlestick forms with each new high, because now it's moving in the upward direction. With each new high, I'm going to raise my stop loss. 44 seconds left on this candle. So far, it's underneath the last, it's a lower low. Lower high. So if it doesn't break that before the minute is up, that is bearish. Let's see. So I'm moving out, too. So this is the five minute candlesticks. And five minute is also fighting the same range. And if I go a little further out, the 30 minutes is kind of where you think it would be. It's trading. It's trading towards the mid range of that really big downward candle here. Bearish candle. It's bearish because of the color. So on this one, it means it opened at this price and it closed at this price, so, like, that's how much it went down. If this gets retaken, which it could in 30 minutes, then that's. That's very bearish. And it could play out where I thought it would originally, which is closer to the mid 250 level. I will watch to see if I want to hold out to that high. What would be awesome is if my price target is 248.25 and I see it just starts to take a bullish turn, then I could raise my price target and then I could raise my stop loss. So I could still get stopped out, but I'll get stopped out to where my target was originally, if it plays out that way. Switching gears a little bit here, this week I'm interviewing somebody who is a real estate investor, and he went from zero doors to 400 doors. And the last time I talked to him, he's heading towards 800 doors in the span of a little over a year. So I'm excited to pick his brain and explore investing in real estate. I've invested in real estate before, but single family properties and the single units, they're long and tedious and sometimes not worth the work. And because the income you get from a single family doesn't warrant a management company, they're harder to manage. And so I just lost interest in the real estate market. But I've recently had my interest stoked again because I have found some mentors that say trading larger units is actually easier than trading smaller units. So I'm curious about that. I will be picking my next guest brain about how that, what that looks like.
[00:50:48] Alright, I'm going to get back to the trade here because it looks like it is starting to move in my direction. I'm going to raise my stop again. So now I've raised my stop to just below, let's see, 246.50. So now, even if it hits my stop loss, I will be up.
[00:51:07] I will be up a $100 on this trade if it hits my stop. So it's still. And I might raise my target depending on how this this plays out.
[00:51:19] Actually, I think I'm going to. I'm going to raise my target quite a bit, actually. I'm going to raise it to that. 249. I'll just raise it to 249, let's say. 249.15.
[00:51:32] It's kind of where I'm feeling it. It's just below the standard deviation. So standard deviation is another indicator that you can use. You use the lines to see where the price action is actually trading and the standard deviations show how much the stock actually moves, typically moves based on the ticks. So let's see, it's coming up. Might raise my stop loss here, too.
[00:52:00] I don't want to raise my stop loss too early because then I could get stopped out before I hit higher targets. But we'll see. The trend has definitely changed and it's starting to move in my direction. And this could be the bottoming here. It was moving up here. I reentered right here. So I didn't get the bottom, but I got pretty close to the bottom. And it can come back here. If it comes back to VWAP holds, I'll feel more confident because that would be actually healthier if it came in a little bit and then started resuming its uptrend. Because if it just goes up and up and up and up, it gets exhausted at some point. It happens. But this isn't that market. Today is not the day. Feels like Tesla's going to want to retest Vwap. And if it holds VW up, I'm gonna feel a lot more confident. Still early. It's 1023. We're 53 minutes into the market. Since the market opened, I am willing to ride this out till 11:00, at which time I will move on with my life. So when you hear trading, it's like, oh, I don't want to be looking at a screen all day. You don't have to. It's like going to the gym. You go to the gym, you set a time, I'm going to work out for an hour or 90 minutes. And you work out and you have your goals and, and then you move on with your life. And trading can also be like that. You set your times, figure out when you want to trade. Most people trade the open. It's the largest amount of volume. That's why it's a favorable time to trade for most people. But if you work in the mornings because it is during regular business hours, then maybe you're not going to trade the open. Maybe you'll trade pre market, which is a little bit riskier because the volume isn't there to just the price.
[00:53:40] You might trade the evening and in fact, you may just trade a different asset class. So if you're someone who's on a, has a regular nine to five, but you're interested in trading, you can find markets that are open 24/7 so cryptocurrency is very popular for that because that market's open twenty four seven. And I believe futures is also 24/7 trading. So you can trade at midnight if you want. You can just pick whatever, you can choose the asset that you want to trade in the time period that you're able to trade it. And I'm stopping here because it's like the trades coming back in which I figured it would touch, it would have to retest. VWAP just seems not like a natural thing to do. And it is. And there's some buyers there now. We get, we're back in that tug of war again because both sides know it's a key level. And so it's going to be indecisive because if it breaks that level, then the trend is reversing. It looks like that's what it's going to do. Bears are going to push this thing to the ground and then the bulls are also looking for retest here because if it holds, then it's going a lot higher. So those people are getting excited in the other direction. And that's what makes the market. I know what I was going to say earlier. If you use technical analysis, technical analysis will work no matter what asset you're trading. So that's the value of technical analysis is you can trade cryptocurrency and technical analysis works. You can trade futures, technical analysis works. You could trade. What else might you trade? Options. Options are a little trickier. They're a little bit more involved. I would not recommend options for the novice trader. Trade equities first. If you're growing a small account, it gets tricky because sometimes options will give you that push that you need. If you're going to learn options, learn options.
[00:55:28] They're a little bit more involved. There's something called the Greeks that you really should know if you're trading options. Seriously, this isn't going to be an options lecture, so I'll spare you from that. Kind of really needed to hold the VWaP here. I need it to hold VWAP because I'm long. So of course I need it to hold vWaP. And if it doesn't, it breaks and it hits my stop. Like I said on this trade, I'm actually going to be up. I'd rather like. Sometimes you go to the gym and you have a great workout and you feel pumped and you feel amazing and you look at yourself in the mirror afterwards and you feel great, or you get on the scale and you've lost weight and you feel amazing and sometimes you go to the gym and you're not feeling it doesn't work out great. It's not the best workout, but at least you went. And if you take that mindset to the market and go, okay, I'm going to trade 2 hours a day, decide the hours that you're going to trade, decide your trading strategy, and then define your risk reward, then you can just treat it like any other discipline.
[00:56:27] You know what you're doing when you're going in and you just follow your plays, follow your playbook. Yeah. Tesla's really struggling at the VWaP, so it looks like it's going to come in. I could raise my stop or I could just close it here, but I'd rather not because sometimes I do that and then it goes, just moves in the other direction. I knew what my stop was. I defined it. So, yeah, I got stopped out. Okay, so I got stopped out. That trade was $100 profit. So now I am down 100 for the day. I have a 300 risk tolerance for the day.
[00:57:01] I don't think I'm going to take another trade because I just don't feel like the energy is there to get things pushing. It could, it could always do it. But I'm also getting just like fatigued watching the ticks go up and down and not really hitting my targets. So I'm not thrilled about that. Now it looks like the trend is going to reverse on Tesla. I do not feel like going short. Looks like Nvidia was also kind of a weak. So let's call it, it's 1030. I was going to trade till eleven. I took three trades. I lost the first two. I won the third one, but the third one, I didn't even hit my price target. But my stop loss was high enough that I actually profited on it. But for the day, I'm going to be read for the day down $100 and I'd rather just be down $100 for today because I can make that $100 up easily on another day when the market is actually stronger for trading. It just doesn't feel like a strong day for trading for me and my style of trading. I hope you guys found some value in this. I may be doing more of these live trades. We'll see how it goes. Like I said, I have another goal of 21 podcasts. So this, these live trades will help me get to that goal faster. I also do interviews. As I said before, I'm interviewing a lot of entrepreneurs, small business owners and founders. And this week I am going to be interviewing a, this week does real estate, but that, that might not get posted for a couple weeks. The one that I'm editing to get posted by the end of the week is an interview I did with a gentleman who founded a company called build my team. He's an optometrist and he was having difficulty hiring staff and keeping staff. His working through that and solving his problems sparked his idea. Now he provides those services for other healthcare professionals who need hiring assistance. He and I also talk about cryptocurrency and trading. We're not financial advisors, we're not offering advice. But you get to hear casual traders talk about what their thinking is and some of it aligns with by what the major players are saying. And the major players are sometimes right and they're sometimes wrong. So you have your own strategy, have your tools that you use. So that's the interview that's coming up at the end of this week. Thank you all for following along on this journey with me. I am going to improve the quality as we go on. Hopefully it's not terrible. You made it this far. I love you guys. So that was the trade. I hope you all enjoyed that for what it's worth and see in the next one. Thank you for watching this episode of the money adjustment. If you want more like comment and subscribe, you can follow me on X Arc Kramer until the next episode, stay healthy and wealthy.
